Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1075

   Mesoscale Discussion 1075
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0557 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southwest Iowa...southeast
   Nebraska...northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 303...

   Valid 102257Z - 110030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 303 continues.

   SUMMARY...Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes
   remain possible across Tornado Watch 303. New storm development and
   intensification is ongoing over northeast KS to the west of the
   ongoing supercells over northern MO. The environment remains very
   favorable for severe weather.

   DISCUSSION...West of the tornadic supercells ongoing over the
   eastern part of WW303, visible imagery showed deepening cumulus
   towers and incipient storms developing along the front and surface
   wind shift from northwest MO into IA/NE and northern KS. A very
   unstable air mass is in place ahead of the slow-moving cold front
   with 4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE which would support intense updrafts.
   Vertical shear is also supporting supercells, though linear forcing
   along the front and storm interactions could support a mixed
   convective mode.

   While new storm development has been gradual, likely owing to warmer
   mid-level temperatures, expectations are for additional storms to
   intensify over the next couple of hours. This matches well with
   recent CAM runs showing supercells and clusters evolving from the
   deepening CU over northeastern KS. Initially a risk for hail and
   damaging gusts is expected, but a 40+ kt low-level jet, depicted on
   area RAP soundings, will help increase low-level hodographs size
   later this evening. This would support the potential for a couple of
   tornadoes with any persistent supercells.

   ..Lyons.. 06/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38139747 38649774 38949780 39529719 40609606 40939554
               41339451 41309409 40719412 39629437 39059500 38719551
               38229652 38079696 38029717 38099732 38139747 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN