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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1075

Mesoscale Discussion 1075
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1075
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

   Areas affected...Western TX Panhandle to western north TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301000Z - 301130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic and isolated large hail/severe wind gusts will
   remain possible through mid-morning with regenerative thunderstorm

   DISCUSSION...Persistent warm theta-e advection, supported by a 40-45
   kt low-level jet and characterized by low to mid 60s surface dew
   points spreading north into the TX Panhandle, continues to foster
   regenerative updrafts that are capable of producing large hail and
   localized severe gusts. Recent HRRR runs along with the 00Z
   NSSL-MPAS suggest two distinct clusters will continue east-southeast
   through mid-morning. The leading one will spread deeper into western
   north TX, with the primary large hail threat occurring along its
   western/upstream flank. The second one in the western TX Panhandle
   will likely track along the residual outflow from the leading
   cluster. The low-level jet should finally subside after sunrise
   which will probably marginalize the overall severe threat briefly,
   before downstream boundary-layer warming aids in possible
   restrengthening in the late morning.

   ..Grams/Thompson.. 05/30/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34219931 33779854 33199859 32989878 32809921 32970000
               33570121 34350220 34860273 35150269 35380187 35220096

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