Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1072

   Mesoscale Discussion 1072
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

   Areas affected...west-central Michigan...northern Indiana...and
   northeastern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 102058Z - 102300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe mesoscale convective system is surging eastward
   over Lake Michigan toward central and southern MI. Watch issuance is
   likely in order to address the associated severe-wind threat.

   DISCUSSION...A mature mesoscale convective system (MCS) has
   developed and is surging eastward over Lake Michigan as of 2040z.
   Several strong-to-severe wind gusts have been reported in the last
   couple of hours, including an 82-kt gust at 2017z in Oshkosh, WI.
   The meridional portion of the line -- oriented orthogonal to
   30-40-kt bulk shear vectors -- is expected to continue producing
   strong-to-severe wind gusts as it crosses Lake Michigan. Downstream
   of the lake, the environment in south-central MI (south of a warm
   front draped through the central part of the state) is characterized
   by very large MLCAPE (3000+ J/kg) and westerly bulk shear around 30
   kts. The general expectation is for the associated mid-level impulse
   to persist eastward and support MCS maintenance into MI. Some
   uncertainty exists as to the eastward extent of the threat in MI,
   possibly due to inflow contamination from convection developing
   across central MI. MCS intensity will eventually wane after peak
   diurnal heating. However, confidence is relatively high in the
   short-term severe-wind threat continuing into MI, and a watch is
   likely warranted.

   ..Flournoy/Mosier.. 06/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...GRB...LOT...ILX...
   MKX...

   LAT...LON   44058790 44668619 44488459 43638396 41758414 40388555
               40378783 40818872 41908802 42838800 44058790 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN