Mesoscale Discussion 1070 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026 Areas affected...north-central Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302... Valid 101957Z - 102200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are developing in northwest MN and moving northeastward. The threat for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two continues across the region this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have initiated in northwestern MN along a cold front draped southward through the region. They have produced some strong wind gusts: 39 kts was reported at 1908z in Roseau, MN. This storm development is aided by a shortwave impulse rotating through the broader mid-level cyclone, and continued development is expected as diurnal warming continues. A corridor of 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE exists ahead of the cold front amidst 30-40 kts of 0-6-km shear. Current RAP profiles indicate a negligibly inhibited and relatively moist troposphere with long, straight hodographs. Shear is predominantly southerly, yielding fast, northeastward motions for any stronger, discrete structures that can form. Current radar observations depict more linear/mixed-mode initiation, consistent with bulk shear oriented parallel to the front. The general expectation is for this sort of convective mode to continue, with a mix of clustery/mixed-mode convection with stronger, discrete structures also possible. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the most likely threats with the most mature storms, with a tornado or two possible if increased updraft deviance occurs. ..Flournoy.. 06/10/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 47519605 48439578 48939568 49409519 49429471 48929442 48659238 47599193 46509242 45989388 45909528 46499607 47519605 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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