Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1050

   Mesoscale Discussion 1050
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0516 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

   Areas affected...portions of central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 092216Z - 092315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A WW will be issued shortly for portions of central
   Nebraska. Hail and damaging winds are likely initially but the
   tornado threat is expected to increase into the evening. A WW will
   be issued by 23z

   DISCUSSION...As of 22 UTC, visible and radar imagery showed
   convection intensifying over the western NE Panhandle. The
   environment downstream has recovered quickly in the wake of earlier
   clouds while maintaining robust surface moisture with dewpoints in
   the upper 60s, increasing to the low 70s F farther east. A very
   unstable environment (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg) is in place with
   deep-layer shear supportive of organized supercells.

   The ongoing storms should continue to mature with a mixed/cluster
   supercell mode expected to spread eastward. Hail and damaging winds
   are likely with supercells initially where higher cloud bases are
   expected. However, as storms move into the richer moisture, backed
   low-level flow will support a tornado risk. This may increase
   further this evening as a forecast 40+ kt low-level jet expands
   low-level hodographs.

   ..Lyons/Smith.. 06/09/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...BOU...

   LAT...LON   42959875 42269829 40439876 40520092 40790192 41130245
               41460258 42800239 42959875 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN