Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1050

   Mesoscale Discussion 1050
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

   Areas affected...portions of central...southern...and eastern Idaho
   into southwestern Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281913Z - 282145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of severe gusts will be possible with the
   stronger storms today. The severe threat should be sparse and a WW
   issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms are gradually increasing in
   coverage over portions of central ID into southwestern MT. These
   storms are developing atop a deep boundary layer, comprised of 9-10
   C/km surface-500 mb lapse rates (per latest RAP forecast soundings).
   The stronger, longer-lasting thunderstorms may generate enough
   evaporative cooling to support strong downbursts, where a couple of
   severe surface gusts may be observed. Still, the severe threat will
   be isolated, precluding the need of a WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

   LAT...LON   42271660 44711616 47641384 47721205 47301167 46331191
               45001199 43531198 42571237 42221305 42031498 42271660