Mesoscale Discussion 1030 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026 Areas affected...parts of east central Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 081929Z - 082200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development increasingly probable by 2-4 PM MDT, including an evolving supercell or two accompanied by the risk for a tornado, in addition to sizable hail. DISCUSSION...Surface ridging nosing southward through northeastern Colorado is beginning to weaken, with 2-hourly surface pressure falls around 2 mb sampled in 19Z surface observations to the immediate lee of the Colorado Front Range. Near-surface flow is veering to an east/southeasterly component, leading to moistening upslope flow north of the Palmer Ridge into the Greater Denver area. Beneath modest (around 20 kt), but strongly sheared, southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, the environment appears likely to become increasingly conducive to supercell development during the next few hours, as the boundary layer destabilizes with continuing insolation. Though mid-level heights are tending to rise, it appears that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. Strongest storms along the northern slope of the Palmer Ridge may be accompanied by potential for a tornado or two, in addition to sizable hail. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 40220492 39730257 38580344 39240493 40220492 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
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