Mesoscale Discussion 1027
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa into southwestern
Wisconsin and northern Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 081758Z - 081930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will evolve northeastward through
the afternoon today. A brief/weak tornado or landspout cannot be
ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Latest observations depict a well-defined MCV over
east-central Iowa, with a weak surface reflection located near Iowa
City, Iowa. A broken band of thunderstorms extends southeastward
from this feature into east-central and southern Illinois, perhaps
along a weak surface trough/wind shift. Regional VWPs (e.g.,
ILX/DVN) depict weakly-curved, low-level hodographs with ~50-75
m2/s2 0-1 km SRH within a very moist (dewpoints in the low/mid 70s
F) and weakly unstable (MLCAPE 500 to locally 1500 J/kg)
environment. Weak mid-level flow (less than 20-30 kts sampled by
these VAD profiles) and effective shear less than 20 kts (per latest
objective analysis) will limit overall storm organization and should
largely preclude marginal supercell structures. Enhanced surface
vertical vorticity, particularly in the vicinity of the weak surface
low in eastern Iowa and, to a lesser extent, along the surface wind
shift in Illinois, and modest low-level buoyancy (0-3 km CAPE up to
125 J/kg) may support some potential for a brief/weak landspout
tornado, however. A localized strong wind gust (40-45 mph) also
cannot be ruled out given the very moist environment. Watch issuance
is not expected owing to the limited nature of this severe threat.
..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/08/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 42289188 42649195 43139171 43479123 43449066 43198997
42738931 41538823 40998810 40658804 40438821 40298857
40318883 40598927 40828966 41049005 41089035 41039068
41069098 41199129 41489159 41949179 42289188
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
Source link