Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1007

   Mesoscale Discussion 1007
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0442 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northern and central Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 062142Z - 062245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected to increase in
   coverage this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are
   becoming more likely.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2135 UTC, satellite and radar imagery over the
   Great Lakes showed new thunderstorm development ongoing along an
   east-west oriented surface front from western Lake Erie into
   southern lower MI and northern IN. South of the boundary, upper 60s
   to low 70s F surface dewpoints and strong heating are supporting
   moderate instability with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. With 40-50 kt of
   deep-layer flow aloft overspreading the unstable air mass, organized
   storms are expected. Already, supercells structures have been
   observed and are likely to be the primary convective mode. Hail and
   damaging winds are possible. Though surface flow is modest, some
   veering and the potential for supercells suggests a tornado or two
   is also possible.

   Uncertainty remains on the east/southeastern extent of the severe
   risk given ongoing convection over central/southern OH and the
   impact of an earlier MCS. A remnant baroclinic zone may be the
   primary focus for the strongest storms into central/northeastern OH
   this evening. Given the expected increase in severe risk, a WW is
   likely needed.

   ..Lyons/Gleason.. 06/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

   LAT...LON   41268109 40648078 39778090 39618112 39898217 40858397
               41158448 41508438 41678386 41728325 41578244 41568159
               41408124 41268109 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN