Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 982

   Mesoscale Discussion 0982
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0546 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern MT...northeast WY...western SD...southwest
   ND

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272...

   Valid 042246Z - 050015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will continue into the early
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered strong storms are ongoing as of 2230 UTC from
   southeast MT/southwest ND into northeast WY. The environment remains
   generally favorable for organized convection, with MLCAPE of
   near/above 1000 J/kg and effective shear of 40+ kt. A low-amplitude
   midlevel shortwave trough moving across eastern MT should help to
   sustain convection into the early evening, with at least transient
   supercells possible. 

   In the short term, isolated large hail and localized severe gusts
   will remain possible with the strongest storms. Cooler temperatures
   and stronger MLCINH are in place east of the Black Hills, but
   low-level moisture also becomes more favorable with eastward extent,
   along/north of a surface boundary draped from southwest into
   south-central SD. If a larger-scale outflow can develop from ongoing
   convection, there will be some potential for upscale growth near the
   intersection of the outflow and surface boundary during the evening.

   ..Dean.. 06/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

   LAT...LON   47500497 46620348 45930255 45350225 44530235 43600260
               43290274 43210296 43310351 43420474 43440598 44110606
               45280624 47140590 47500497 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN