Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 971

   Mesoscale Discussion 0971
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0507 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

   Areas affected...North-central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 032207Z - 040000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may increase in coverage through the evening
   hours. However, weaker deep-layer shear with southward extent casts
   uncertainty on storm longevity and whether additional watch issuance
   will be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, deepening cumulus and initial
   stages of sustained thunderstorm development have become apparent
   along a surface trough and along/north of a northward propagating
   outflow boundary across north-central NE. This activity is maturing
   within the regional buoyancy maximum where lifted indices are on the
   order of -6 to -8 C and SBCAPE is estimated upwards of 3000 J/kg.
   Consequently, the intensity and coverage of convection should
   increase over the next couple of hours to the south of WW 271.
   However, based on latest forecast soundings and RAP mesoanalysis,
   weaker mid/upper-level flow with southward extent is contributing to
   effective bulk shear values on the order of 25 knots. While
   supportive of marginal supercells, given the tight clustering of
   developing convection evident in GOES imagery, loosely organized
   multicells should be the most probable storm mode with an attendant
   threat for isolated large hail and severe gusts. 

   Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along the
   southward advancing cold front later this evening, but focused
   frontal forcing should promote more linear modes and a predominant
   wind threat. Regardless, the marginal shear environment coupled with
   the relatively confined spatial corridor between WW 271 and a cold
   pool across south-central NE casts uncertainty on how long-lived
   and/or widespread the severe threat will be.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 06/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   41430022 41500061 41690110 42000142 42350162 42660166
               42880154 43010126 42969983 43019874 43079811 43069779
               42929756 42679749 42339762 42139778 41859811 41679848
               41529894 41429933 41419977 41430022 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN