Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 913

   Mesoscale Discussion 0913
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0701 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

   Areas affected...parts of western Nebraska

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 254...

   Valid 310001Z - 310130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 254 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail
   and damaging winds will continue this evening. The tornado potential
   may increase slightly around sunset before waning much later this
   evening. The severe threat continues.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop in arc from northeast
   Colorado east into western Nebraska then southeast into central
   Kansas this evening. This region is likely being glanced by
   large-scale ascent associated with the lifting, negatively tilted
   short-wave trough over central Colorado and eastern Wyoming.
   Additionally, this area is likely experiencing large-scale ascent
   associated with a 300-mb subtropical jet and subtle short-wave
   trough lifting northeast across the central US.

   MUCAPE values across the region are quite extreme, with a reservoir
   of 4000 J/kg along and ahead of the northward moving arc of
   convection. Deep-layer shear across the line remains on the weaker
   side for organized convection, with only 25-35 knots objectively
   analyzed. That said, shear vectors are mostly orthogonal to the
   initiating boundary and the extreme instability should support a
   continued threat for large hail and damaging winds.

   With time this evening, the low-level jet is forecast to forecast to
   increase around and after sunset. As this happens, strengthening,
   strongly veering with height, low-level wind fields may support a
   more favorable environment for a tornado or two.

   The severe threat continues across the watch this evening.

   ..Marsh.. 05/31/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40020207 40980207 41000261 42950273 42990021 42120017
               42109963 41759966 41779916 41069920 41010022 40730022
               40689998 40459998 40300017 39620017 39590071 39990079
               40020207 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN