Mesoscale Discussion 0894
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Areas affected...Western/northern OK into parts of the eastern TX/OK
Panhandles and extreme southern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 292016Z - 292145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will be possible from late
afternoon into the evening.
DISCUSSION...Morning convection across parts of northern/central OK
has diminished this afternoon, with relatively strong heating and
destabilization underway across parts of western and northern OK. A
surface confluence zone extends from central into northwest OK, with
the strongest heating noted to the south of this zone across
west-central/southwest OK, and relatively backed low-level flow
observed near/north of this zone. As MLCINH weakens and a compact
midlevel shortwave trough moves from the TX Panhandle into northern
OK, at least isolated storm development will be possible by 4-6 PM
CDT, with some increase in coverage expected into the evening.
Moderate to strong buoyancy will support robust updrafts as storms
mature from late afternoon into the evening. Mid/upper-level flow is
currently rather weak, though some increase is expected into early
evening. Effective shear will be maximized where surface winds
remain backed, and a supercell or two could evolve with time, with a
threat of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and
possibly a brief tornado. Outflow consolidation may eventually lead
to a corridor of somewhat greater severe-wind threat across northern
OK and far southern KS. Watch issuance is possible across parts of
the region later this afternoon.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 35569814 35339875 35219945 35349980 35550018 36270058
36890080 37209922 37259809 37209717 36729683 36429676
36059673 35919704 35779764 35569814
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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