Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 817

   Mesoscale Discussion 0817
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0402 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

   Areas affected...southeastern Colorado...southwest
   Kansas...Northeast New Mexico and the TX/OK Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...

   Valid 212102Z - 212230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Ongoing storms should intensify with a risk for hail,
   damaging gusts and possibly a tornado this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Across WW238, convection has strengthened this
   afternoon with a mix of supercellular and linear structures now
   apparent over southeast CO and northeast NM. These storms are moving
   into a moderately unstable environment with SBCAPE of 1000-2000
   J/kg. Vertical shear remains supportive of organized storms.
   Convection should continue to intensify as it moves east/southeast
   this afternoon/evening. Hail should remain the primary risk given
   steep mid-level lapse rates. However, clustering and the linear
   segments will also support some damaging wind risk this evening. A
   brief tornado is also possible later this evening with any discrete
   supercells able to interact with an increasing low-level jet. Given
   this, the severe threat continues for much of WW238.

   ..Lyons.. 05/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   38540306 38140169 37510109 36890106 36360110 35860144
               35670214 35610277 35630353 35810421 36440431 37800394
               38540306 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN