Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 808

   Mesoscale Discussion 0808
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0429 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southwestern Connecticut into extreme
   southeast New York...New Jersey...much of Delaware...extreme eastern
   Maryland

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235...

   Valid 202129Z - 202230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 235
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging to severe gusts remain a concern across portions
   of the Mid-Atlantic. The best chance for a severe gust exists with
   the north-to-south oriented portion of the line.

   DISCUSSION...Multicellular convection has loosely organized into a
   progressive MCS across portions of the Mid Atlantic. In the last few
   hours, several damaging gusts have been received. Preceding the
   storms is a well-mixed boundary layer, characterized by over 1500
   J/kg MLCAPE due to 8-9 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates overlapping 90+ F
   surface temperatures. Furthermore, vertical speed shear, while
   moderate (e.g. 25 kts per 21Z mesoanalysis), is oriented roughly
   normal to the MCS leading line. As such, damaging gusts are expected
   to continue for a few more hours. The best chance for damaging gusts
   will be with the northern portions of the MCS (from PHL to areas
   west of NYC) given the most favorable alignment with the deep-layer
   shear vector.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/20/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38787625 39717555 40697500 41227442 41497347 41457258
               41317221 41147212 40827296 40587353 39877404 39347443
               38857504 38687542 38617575 38787625 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN