Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 773

   Mesoscale Discussion 0773
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0207 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

   Areas affected...North-central Kansas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 222...

   Valid 181907Z - 182030Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 222 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat is increasing in parts of north-central
   Kansas. A strong to intense tornado is possible in this environment.

   DISCUSSION...Several discrete storms have developed in the vicinity
   of Concordia, KS. The strongest storm so far is in Lincoln County,
   KS and has shown signs of increasing inflow and mesocyclone
   strength. This storm will pose the greatest tornado threat as it
   will most likely have more residence time in the most favorable
   environment. Given the location of these storms within the modified
   outflow with backed surface winds and an expected increase in the
   850 mb winds through the afternoon, this activity will be the
   primary focus for tornado potential over the next 2-3 hours. Surface
   winds near Great Bend/Russell have trended more westerly, but
   farther north, where these storms are ongoing, the winds remain more
   northeasterly/northerly. This at least suggests that the linear
   forcing will remain weak in the short term and keep discrete modes
   deeper into the afternoon.

   ..Wendt.. 05/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   38819834 39129822 39509795 39889755 40009728 40069686
               39959654 39819645 39629650 39149707 38899765 38769810
               38819834 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN