Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 770

   Mesoscale Discussion 0770
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1138 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

   Areas affected...Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 181638Z - 181745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will be needed as the
   northern edge of a QLCS/Bow Echo moves across Lake Michigan and into
   lower Michigan.

   DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a bow-echo currently moving
   across Lake Michigan will pose a threat for damaging winds gusts
   across lower and central Michigan this afternoon. Low-level lapse
   rates and strong buoyancy will support continued convective
   development along the leading edge of the bow echo, and large DCAPE
   will support strong downdrafts capable of 65-80 MPH gusts.

   ..Halbert/Hart.. 05/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41498662 41608738 41868756 42078775 42168788 42268769
               43008587 43398434 43718346 43788295 43668267 43468248
               42998230 42468257 42378285 41978316 41688366 41568476
               41498662 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN