Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 743

   Mesoscale Discussion 0743
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0858 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

   Areas affected...portons of northern Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 210...

   Valid 170158Z - 170330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 210 continues.

   SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may still occur with an MCS across
   northern MO over the next few hours. Isolated severe hail remains
   possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Multicells and supercells have grown upscale into a
   southward propagating MCS. A strengthening LLJ is fostering
   low-level moisture convergence/WAA with this MCS, aiding in its
   persistence this evening. Given over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE residing ahead
   of the MCS, a few severe gusts may still occur over the next few
   hours, before boundary layer stabilization limits wind potential. A
   few instances of severe hail could also briefly occur with the
   stronger storm cores. A tornado still cannot be ruled out, either
   with merging supercell structures, or a resultant embedded
   mesovortex.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40199493 40489439 40569375 40459285 40059244 39809240
               39639271 39629339 39639389 39729427 39839457 40199493 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN