Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 623

   Mesoscale Discussion 0623
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0543 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

   Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana...southern Mississippi and
   Alabama

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181...

   Valid 292243Z - 300045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Damaging winds remain possible as an MCS slowly pushes
   south across far southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi and
   Alabama. Trends are being monitored for the need for a downstream
   watch issuance across parts of the Florida Panhandle.

   DISCUSSION...A squall line continues to push south/southeast with a
   few wind damage reports noted over the past 1-2 hours. More
   recently, observed winds have largely been near 35-40 mph and MRMS
   echo tops shows a slight weakening trend over the past half hour.
   Additionally, anvil shading downstream of the MCS is cooling surface
   temperatures, resulting in a gradual decrease in surface-based and
   mixed-layer CAPE in recent mesoanalyses. 

   Despite this weakening trend, a narrow plume of 1000-1500 J/kg
   remains in place immediately downstream of the MCS, so some
   re-intensification appears plausible over the next hour or so before
   the MCS reaches the coast. Consequently, the potential for damaging
   winds (most likely between 40-60 mph) will likely persist for the
   short-term. 

   Further east, the primary bowing segment of the MCS is beginning to
   approach the Mobile, AL area. Based on recent storm tracks, is
   appears possible that this section of the line moves into the far
   western FL Panhandle within the next 1-2 hours. This may require a
   watch extension or targeted watch issuance if re-intensification of
   the MCS occurs.

   ..Moore.. 04/29/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30199030 30329071 30509098 30709122 30949130 31179131
               31369115 31249041 31219004 31198971 31218912 31298868
               31478835 31628806 31588720 31468649 31348619 31218601
               31148592 30918597 30588626 30408657 30258714 30078795
               30038905 30048945 30078987 30199030 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN