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Mesoscale Discussion 623 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0623 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0926 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northwest Oklahoma...central Kansas...southeast Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 040226Z - 040430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The environment should remain supportive of large hail and severe wind gusts over the next few hours. A low-end tornado threat will also exist, particularly for remaining discrete storms. A new severe thunderstorm watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Convection within the central/southern Plains continues to move eastward this evening. Regional VAD wind show and increase in the low-level jet (40-50 kts). Along with the low-level jet, 60+ F dewpoints and observed steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to support some threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Low-level hodograph curvature is evident on VAD wind profiles as well. Some tornado threat will exist, though the primarily linear storm mode should limit a greater threat. A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for at least parts of areas from northwest Oklahoma into southeast Nebraska. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 39759800 40359737 40629696 40469657 39489649 38579701 37399791 35949880 35549936 35419993 36060004 37129925 38239881 39759800 |
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