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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 623












Mesoscale Discussion 623
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0623
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0926 PM CDT Fri May 03 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of northwest Oklahoma...central
   Kansas...southeast Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 040226Z - 040430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The environment should remain supportive of large hail and
   severe wind gusts over the next few hours. A low-end tornado threat
   will also exist, particularly for remaining discrete storms. A new
   severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Convection within the central/southern Plains continues
   to move eastward this evening. Regional VAD wind show and increase
   in the low-level jet (40-50 kts). Along with the low-level jet, 60+
   F dewpoints and observed steep mid-level lapse rates will continue
   to support some threat for large hail and severe wind gusts.
   Low-level hodograph curvature is evident on VAD wind profiles as
   well. Some tornado threat will exist, though the primarily linear
   storm mode should limit a greater threat. A new severe thunderstorm
   watch will likely be needed for at least parts of areas from
   northwest Oklahoma into southeast Nebraska.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 05/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   39759800 40359737 40629696 40469657 39489649 38579701
               37399791 35949880 35549936 35419993 36060004 37129925
               38239881 39759800 


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