Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 605

   Mesoscale Discussion 0605
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0550 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

   Areas affected...central Mississippi into southern Alabama

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 173...

   Valid 282250Z - 290045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 173 continues.

   SUMMARY...The convective environment remains favorable or severe
   thunderstorms across central Mississippi into parts of southern
   Alabama.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KDGX and KGWX shows
   intensification of a supercell (including a notable three-body
   scatter spike) north of the Jackson, MS area. Although this storm is
   likely elevated based on the placement of an outflow boundary (noted
   in surface observations), a recent 21 UTC sounding from JAN sampled
   sufficient MUCAPE for robust convection, even when accounting for
   near-storm conditions within the cold pool. This sounding also
   sampled effective bulk shear values on the order of 50-60 knots,
   which is highly favorable for organized convection. As demonstrated
   by the recent trends in the supercell north of Jackson, MS, this
   environment should continue to support intensification of ongoing
   elevated storms and/or development of new convection over the next
   several hours.

   ..Moore.. 04/28/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   31298664 32198985 32369018 32699033 32999030 33259008
               33318974 33168900 32458644 32188613 31788602 31578621
               31378640 31298664 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN