Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 414

   Mesoscale Discussion 0414
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0915 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

   Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota into southern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 103...

   Valid 140215Z - 140315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues.

   SUMMARY...A replacement for the 03Z expiring WW 103 is expected
   soon. Damaging winds will become more of threat with time, but the
   threat for tornadoes will still be a concern into the overnight
   given the strong low-level shear.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection across the Upper Midwest has
   generally become more linear over the past few hours. The increase
   of the low-level jet (50+ kts observed on the KMKX VAD) suggests
   that buoyant inflow will be sustained as storms move south and east
   into the overnight period. The threat for damaging winds will likely
   be on the increase as linear segments continue to organize and
   low-level flow remains strong. The tornado threat has decreased
   somewhat due to a less favorable storm mode. Even so, the KMKX VAD
   has a notable 700+ 0-1 km SRH. The potential for tornadoes will
   still be concern both with QLCS circulations and any discrete storms
   that may form ahead of the linear segments. WW 103 is set to expire
   at 03Z and a replacement watch will need to be issued soon.

   ..Wendt.. 04/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43409324 44069262 44539011 44488961 43858785 42638782
               42648814 42668917 42659015 43409324 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN