Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 386

   Mesoscale Discussion 0386
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

   Areas affected...Central and North Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 101...

   Valid 120714Z - 120915Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 101
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe wind gusts and potential for
   a tornado or two will continue over the next few hours across parts
   of central and north Texas.

   DISCUSSION...A line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing across
   northern sections of the Texas Hill Country. Ahead of the line, a
   moist airmass is in place with surface dewpoint in the mid 60s F.
   The RAP has weak instability over this moist airmass, with MLCAPE
   generally around 500 J/kg. The line is moving towards an axis of
   strong low-level flow, in which short-term model forecasts continue
   to strengthen late tonight into early this morning. In response,
   surface dewpoints will gradually rise, as a 50 knot speed max at 850
   mb develops ahead of the ongoing line of storms. This should help
   maintain a severe threat over the next few hours. Isolated severe
   wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible, mainly
   with rotating elements embedded in the line.

   ..Broyles.. 04/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   32309732 31659725 30919731 30389754 30299782 30309819
               30389833 30529842 30719837 31169828 31639820 32399829
               32769834 33109825 33229798 33159761 32629740 32309732 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH