Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 386

   Mesoscale Discussion 0386
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0444 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast AR into northern MS and southwest TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 082144Z - 082345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail will remain possible through early
   evening.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered strong storms have developed this afternoon
   along the northern periphery of returning low-level moisture from
   southeast AR into northern MS and southwest TN. Low/mid 60s F
   dewpoints spreading northward into a region where temperatures have
   already warmed well into the 70s F has resulted in MLCAPE rising to
   1000-1500 J/kg. Effective shear of 40-50 kt and elongated hodographs
   will remain supportive of supercell structures, with large hail as
   the primary short-term threat. Coverage of the threat will likely
   remain rather isolated, but one or two cells may be capable of
   producing hail in the 1.5 - 2 inch diameter range, as recently noted
   east of Memphis. Watch issuance is unlikely, unless coverage of
   hail-producing supercells becomes greater than currently
   anticipated.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 04/08/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34599199 35489005 35928899 36078804 35898759 35618753
               35198785 34838840 34189033 33729192 33879235 34599199