Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 385

   Mesoscale Discussion 0385
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1152 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

   Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into parts of north-central TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 100...

   Valid 120452Z - 120615Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 100
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts and a brief tornado remain
   possible into the overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS has evolved across parts of
   Edwards Plateau, with multiple embedded bowing segments noted from
   east of San Angelo to north of Del Rio. Organized storm structures
   are expected to persist into the early overnight hours, given
   favorable moisture, effective SRH (generally in the 100-200 m2/s2
   range) and moderate deep-layer shear. However, the magnitude of the
   threat may be tempered to some extent by the modest buoyancy (MLCAPE
   of 500-1000 J/kg) and weak low-level lapse rates. 

   Strong to locally severe gusts will continue to be possible with any
   persistent bowing segments, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out
   given the presence of sufficient low-level shear. Some severe threat
   may develop east and north of WW 100, though the need for local
   watch expansion or new watch issuance will be dependent on
   short-term observational trends regarding convective vigor and
   organization into the early morning.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 04/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29490071 30430023 31449968 31789975 32669910 32999899
               32919826 32249819 31539833 31339842 30409891 29319987
               29180027 29190086 29490071 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN