Mesoscale Discussion 0385
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0435 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024
Areas affected...Portions of West/Northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 082135Z - 082330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large to very large hail (2-4 inches
in diameter) are expected this evening, with convective initiation
after 22z. Watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show a steady increase in
agitated cumulus development within a north-south oriented corridor
across portions of West Texas. These trends are coincident with a
southerly influx of richer low-level moisture across this region,
characterized by surface dew point temperatures in the mid-to
upper-50s F, beneath cooler mid-level temperatures with northward
extent. Meanwhile, temperatures have risen into the upper 70s F amid
strong heating, yielding 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. SPC mesoanalysis
shows CIN has mostly eroded across the region in the last hour,
indicating convective initiation may be imminent.
The plume of richer low-level moisture is expected to continue
advancing northward and impinge upon a diffuse cold front positioned
across parts of Northwest Texas. The combined effects of surface
convergence/heating will allow further destabilization and erosion
of the cap after 22z, with scattered thunderstorms expected
thereafter. Strong deep-layer shear and elongated/straight
hodographs should yield discrete supercells, with large to very
large hail (2-4 inches in diameter) the primary hazard initially.
Relatively weak low-level shear is expected to limit the initial
tornado potential, but as the low-level jet increases into the early
evening hours, the tornado potential may increase if storms can
remain discrete.
..Karstens/Bentley/Hart.. 04/08/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 30710081 30800165 32010196 32980225 33880102 33869956
33549869 33219844 32669805 31999836 31549955 31369989
30860030 30710081