Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 287

   Mesoscale Discussion 0287
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0720 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

   Areas affected...central/southern parts of IL/IN/OH

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73...74...

   Valid 230020Z - 230145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 73, 74
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe hail should be the primary hazard with elevated
   thunderstorms spreading east-southeast into late evening in a
   portion of the Midwest.

   DISCUSSION...Convective development has largely been sustained about
   80 miles north of a southeastward-moving cold front approaching the
   OH River. This arc of elevated storms was rooted near 750 mb per
   ACARS data near IND and appears likely to be the primary focus for
   severe potential through late evening. The cores across central IN
   to central OH have had generally marginal severe hail MRMS
   signatures with several semi-discrete structures. Ample speed shear
   through the cloud-bearing layer will offer potential for updrafts
   capable of sporadic severe hail up to around golf-ball size,
   including left and right splits.

   Farther south on the front, attempts at surface-based storms appear
   to have largely failed within persistent MLCIN and weak large-scale
   ascent outside of the undercutting boundary. With nocturnal
   boundary-layer cooling ahead of the front, it seems unlikely that
   additional development will occur. Current elevated storms across
   south-central IL will probably be the back edge of sustained severe
   potential as they shift east-southeastward.

   ..Grams.. 03/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...

   LAT...LON   40968294 40868231 39998225 39558231 39128300 38938542
               38278775 38228833 38478867 39568852 40428684 40968294 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN