Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 287

   Mesoscale Discussion 0287
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0752 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...Far Southeast
   Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 300052Z - 300315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat, with potential for hail and
   severe gusts, may develop across parts of the lower to mid Missouri
   Valley this evening. The threat is expected to be too marginal for
   watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1000 mb low over
   far northeast Kansas, with a warm front extending across Iowa. A
   cold front is moving eastward across eastern Kansas. Low-level
   convergence is focused along and near these two boundaries, which
   will support convective development this evening. An instability
   axis is analyzed by the RAP ahead of a cold front from eastern
   Kansas into far southwest Iowa. Along this axis, surface dewpoints
   in the 55 to 60 F range are contributing MLCAPE between 1000 to 1500
   J/kg, according to the RAP. RAP forecast soundings early this
   evening near the instability axis have effective shear between 35
   and 45 knots. This may support a severe potential, with isolated
   severe gusts and hail as the primary threats. However, forecast
   soundings also have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 6.5 C/km. The poor
   lapse rates should keep any severe threat marginal.

   ..Broyles/Mosier.. 03/30/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   41229598 42089500 42619324 42589242 42359219 41809221
               41089253 39399360 38899403 38689454 38669520 38809582
               39249625 39839639 40469632 41229598 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN