Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 249

   Mesoscale Discussion 0249
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0547 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

   Areas affected...Illinois and southeast Missouri

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 52...54...55...

   Valid 152247Z - 160015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 52, 54, 55 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe squall line is propagating steadily east this
   evening. Damaging winds are expected, along with a risk for a few
   tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Mature squall line is propagating east at roughly
   30-35kt across central IL into southeast MO. This LEWP is likely
   producing damaging winds, and several bow-head type circulations are
   evident along the leading edge of the linear MCS. Air mass is not
   particularly unstable, but VWX and PAH vad winds exhibit more than
   300 0-3km SRH, along with strong speed shear. In addition, intense
   midlevel height falls favor this strongly forced band of convection
   to advance into western portions of IN shortly after 01z.

   ..Darrow.. 03/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37569012 40508872 40218720 37528870 37569012 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN