Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 209

   Mesoscale Discussion 0209
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0308 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of east-central/northeast TX into northwest
   LA and southwest AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 110808Z - 110945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An uptick in the severe threat is possible overnight, with
   some potential for all severe hazards. Watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have been generally disorganized early this
   morning across northeast TX, with the bulk of deeper convection
   appearing to be slightly elevated to the north of a expansive
   convective outflow. However, convection has been gradually
   increasing within a modest warm-advection regime to the south of the
   outflow, within an environment characterized by moderate buoyancy
   and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized storms. Increasing
   ascent downstream of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough currently
   moving across southwest TX may allow for gradually increasing storm
   coverage from parts of east-central TX into the ArkLaTex. 

   Some weakening of low-level flow has been noted on the KSHV VWP, but
   effective SRH remains more than sufficient for a conditional tornado
   threat, in addition to localized hail and damaging-wind potential.
   Substantial uncertainty remains regarding the potential for
   surface-based convection to mature within this regime, given the
   current disorganization of convection and a tendency for the
   low-level jet to become focused to the north of the region, but
   watch issuance is possible if observational trends begin to support
   potential for supercell development.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31729649 33209436 33839342 33829274 33419242 32809297
               32279372 31229554 31299636 31729649 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN