Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 206

   Mesoscale Discussion 0206
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0114 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern MO

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 40...

   Valid 110614Z - 110745Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 40 continues.

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado remain
   possible early this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Within a broader QLCS, a convective line segment has
   recently taken on a more north-south orientation and accelerated
   eastward across central MO. This orientation is more favorable for
   damaging-wind and embedded tornado potential, within an environment
   of very strong low-level southwesterly flow (50-60 kt on regional
   VWPs) and moderate buoyancy. However, the 04Z SGF sounding depicted
   rather substantial MLCINH, resulting in uncertainty regarding the
   longevity of organized storm structures and the magnitude of the
   severe threat early this morning. 

   If this line segment remains organized, some threat for damaging
   wind and perhaps a tornado may eventually spread into parts of
   east-central MO, out of the remaining portion of WW 40. The need for
   new watch issuance is very uncertain, but trends will continue to be
   monitored for an uptick in storm organization overnight.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38059316 38819266 39289236 39419191 39359091 38559106
               37829150 37799245 37759329 38059316 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN