Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 198

   Mesoscale Discussion 0198
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0751 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

   Areas affected...far southeastern Iowa across northern Illinois

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...

   Valid 110051Z - 110145Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.

   SUMMARY...Several supercells on the immediate frontal zone will pose
   a continued risk for all hazards this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple strong supercells have developed along the
   frontal zone this evening from extreme southeastern IA into northern
   IL> As of 0045 UTC, radar and surface data shows most of the storms
   remain on the immediate cool side of the front/modified outflow
   boundary.  To the south of the front, robust surface-based buoyancy
   and very strong low-level shear remain in place supportive of all
   severe hazards.

   Current forecast guidance and observational trends suggest these
   storms may briefly become surface-based this evening as they catch
   up to the surface front. This appears most likely with the storms to
   the southwest of the main cluster (Stark/Marshal Counties IL).
   Should this occur, an STP environment of 2-4 would support the risk
   for tornadoes, some of which could be strong to intense, along with
   very large hail.

   Additional storms moving out of eastern MO may move into southern
   portions of WW32 this evening. This would continue to support a risk
   for all hazards into tonight.

   ..Lyons.. 03/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40689207 41239097 41318933 41448795 41308748 40918740
               40678744 40508797 40318935 40159030 40099080 40129106
               40159140 40689207 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN