Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 170

   Mesoscale Discussion 0170
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0255 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

   Areas affected...parts of northern West Virginia...western
   Pennsylvania...southwestern New York

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 25...

   Valid 072055Z - 072300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 25 continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for, mainly, marginally severe hail and locally
   damaging wind gusts may persist another couple of hours, but this
   potential appears unlikely to develop eastward across New York
   State, or to the east/southeast of the Allegheny Mountains.

   DISCUSSION...Surface observations have indicated further downward
   mixing of surface dew points with continuing daytime heating ahead
   of convection spreading into the Allegheny Plateau, with surface
   winds remaining westerly to southwesterly across surface troughing
   into the higher terrain.  While low-level hodographs may be
   conditionally supportive of tornadic potential near the trough, it
   is not clear that thermodynamic profiles are supportive.  

   Eastward, and particularly to the east/southeast of the crest of the
   Allegheny Mountains, cool to cold and stable boundary-layer air is
   either being maintained or slow to erode.  As stronger storms cross
   the higher terrain into and through early evening, they should tend
   to weaken with diminishing risk of producing severe hail and
   damaging surface gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 03/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...

   LAT...LON   42577894 42257844 41197882 40587876 40017903 39557942
               39167980 38748078 38988157 39928074 42577894 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN