Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 146

   Mesoscale Discussion 0146
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0131 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of northern OK into south-central/southeast
   KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 14...

   Valid 060731Z - 060930Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 14
   continues.

   SUMMARY...At least a localized severe threat may continue through
   the early morning hours.

   DISCUSSION...An earlier tornadic supercell has recently weakened
   east of Wichita, due to increasing CINH and decreasing low-level
   moisture quality with northeastward extent. Farther southwest, a
   small bowing segment has evolved from an earlier supercell cluster
   across north-central OK. The nocturnal increase in CINH should
   eventually lead to a weakening trend with this cluster as well, but
   given its current level of organization and very strong low-level
   flow noted on the KVNX and KICT VWPs, localized severe gusts and
   perhaps a brief tornado may accompany this cluster as it moves into
   south-central KS. Gusty to locally severe winds will also continue
   to be possible with this cluster even if it begins to decay. 

   Otherwise, the environment remains conditionally favorable for
   supercells, but increasing low-level stability should tend to
   mitigate this threat with time. However, some threat for hail and/or
   a brief tornado cannot be ruled out if any additional supercells can
   evolve within the ongoing convection.

   ..Dean.. 03/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36459839 37149791 38059734 38349673 38439625 38349592
               37989575 37189614 36499683 36249738 36269801 36459839 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN