Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 120

   Mesoscale Discussion 0120
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0523 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of northern/central MS and northern/central
   AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 262323Z - 270130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible for
   the next next few hours. The main concern will be severe hail and
   locally damaging gusts.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data depicts scattered thunderstorms
   evolving along a weak surface boundary and ahead of a subtle surface
   wave in northern/central MS into northern/central AL. A few of these
   storms have recently intensified and are capable of producing severe
   hail. Despite the loss of daytime heating, modest midlevel lapse
   rates atop lower 60s dewpoints are yielding around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE
   ahead of these storms. This buoyancy, coupled with a long/straight
   hodograph (50-60 kt of 0-6 km shear per GWX VWP) may continue to
   favor a couple organized cells, to include marginal/transient
   supercell structures. Given weak large-scale ascent, these storms
   may remain mostly discrete/semi-discrete and pose a risk of isolated
   severe hail for the next couple hours. However, storm mergers and
   localized upscale growth into clusters along the boundary could also
   support locally damaging gusts. Given the gradual onset of
   boundary-layer nocturnal cooling and limited forcing for ascent, the
   overall severe risk is expected to remain too localized/brief for a
   watch.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 02/26/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33228599 32658679 32518819 32608939 32749029 33159072
               33689088 34319061 34659001 34828883 34768752 34628669
               34228601 33828589 33228599 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN