Mesoscale Discussion 0103 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Areas affected...Portions of southern Illinois to the Indiana border Concerning...Tornado Watch 10... Valid 200003Z - 200130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado Watch #10 continues until 0200 UTC. A cluster of supercellular thunderstorms in south-central Illinois is advancing into the watch area, and will pose a threat for all hazards over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...As a cluster of supercell thunderstorms enters west-northwestern potions of WW10 across south-central Illinois, the threat for all hazards, including tornadoes, will persist over the next few hours. While VWPs from KLSX shows winds in the low levels beginning to veer into more straight-line hodographs, the environment downstream of the ongoing supercells (e.g. KILX, KVWX) still show strong curvature of the hodograph in the low levels. Buoyancy remains relatively modest, but when combined with observed kinematics, the environment could continue to support mesocyclone development and maintenance as storms continue to mature and enter the watch area. There is still some uncertainty in this longevity given cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints -- particularly where storms have already tracked earlier this afternoon. Recent radar scans may indicate some down-trending of convective activity is occurring (potentially due to poor thermodynamics). Still, the environment does support a continued severe threat, particularly with any long-lived/mature supercell thunderstorms. ..Halbert/Gleason.. 02/20/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 38448865 38598869 38758877 38818897 38928913 39028914 39228907 39708862 39838821 39808764 39538731 39258723 39038715 38858716 38678750 38568794 38458837 38448854 38448865 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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