Mesoscale Discussion 0102 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026 Areas affected...Portions of western/southern Indiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 10... Valid 192326Z - 200100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado Watch #10 continues until 0200 UTC. A supercell thunderstorm currently tracking across northern portions of the watch in far western/southern Indiana is the primary focus for severe activity in the short term, and has a history of rotation and brief tornadoes. DISCUSSION...The supercell thunderstorm tracking across the northern portions of Tornado Watch #10 is the primary concern for severe weather in the next 1-2 hours, with a history of rotation and tornado production. While further north in the cooler air, VWP profiles from KIND show strong curvature of the hodograph in the lowest levels which will help support continued mesocyclone and tornado development, with values in the 0-500m layer 120 m2/s2. Even further south away from the frontal boundary, profiles from KLVX still show strong support for low-topped supercell longevity. However, some uncertainty exists in how far eastward current convection will be maintained given only modest dewpoints in the low-to-mid 50s F. In spite of this, the cooler temperatures aloft and buoyancy evident in proximity sounding profiles, combined with the strong kinematics discussed and history of tornado production, the expectation is that severe convection should continue eastward into central Indiana for at least the next two hours. This supercell will continue to be capable of all hazards, including a strong tornado. ..Halbert/Gleason.. 02/19/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND... LAT...LON 38928700 38938715 38998724 39048731 39158730 39248725 39348711 39398689 39438668 39478645 39498625 39518605 39488595 39478587 39438578 39308570 39248569 39148570 39068580 39018600 38978628 38958652 38948670 38928700 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Source link