Mesoscale Discussion 0005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama...southern
Georgia...Florida Panhandle and northern Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 031752Z - 031945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Marginal risk for strong to severe wind, hail, and a
tornado possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of showers and thunderstorms continues
across the Florida Peninsula into southern Georgia this afternoon.
Largely, this is ongoing on the eastern edge of the better air mass
extending across the western Panhandle into southern
Alabama/Mississippi/Louisiana.
Closer to the front ahead of the ejecting wave, new development is
ongoing across southern Alabama within the more appreciable
instability and deep layer shear overlap. A few stronger echo tops
are observed on radar in recent scans with some uptick in lightning
activity suggesting a few isolated strong to severe storms may be
trying to form. Given environment with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and
deep layer shear around 40-45 kts, some risk for transient
supercells and stronger cores will be possible. It remains somewhat
uncertain how the downstream air mass will recover after morning
shower activity. However, some hi-res guidance suggests that the
broken line may intensify and or activity to the north near the
front may organize and shift southward. The second scenario remains
more likely, however, longevity of this severe risk is uncertain as
these storms move into the less favorable air mass.
Overall, some threat for damaging wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado
will be possible through the early afternoon. Given uncertainty on
duration and coverage, a watch is not anticipated at this time.
..Thornton/Guyer.. 01/03/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 30108801 30378837 30598854 30978846 31998711 32308482
32228335 32058188 31768107 31478100 31268101 30318173
29748247 29518419 29668535 29968697 30108801
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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