Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2277

   Mesoscale Discussion 2277
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0716 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

   Areas affected...Northeastern Missouri into central Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281316Z - 281515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated, small to marginally severe hail may accompany
   the stronger storms that evolve this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Along the northern periphery of the evolving warm
   sector and ahead of a developing surface low over eastern KS, a
   broad plume of low-level warm advection will continue shifting
   eastward while supporting isolated to widely scattered elevated
   thunderstorms from northeastern MO into central IL this morning.
   Here, an influx of steeper midlevel lapse rates from the southwest
   (see TOP 12Z sounding) and modest low-level moistening amid a
   relatively cool boundary layer will contribute to increasing (albeit
   weak) elevated buoyancy (around 500-800 J/kg MUCAPE). This, combined
   with around 40-50 kt of effective shear may promote a couple loosely
   organized elevated storms -- posing a risk of small to marginally
   severe hail and possibly locally strong gusts through the morning
   hours. The overall severe risk is expected to remain
   isolated/transient along this corridor this morning, with the
   greater severe risk expected farther south later today.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 12/28/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39659083 39479164 39549231 39829261 40219260 40419237
               41198939 41258864 41058820 40778807 40438817 40198843
               39908994 39659083 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN