Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2226

   Mesoscale Discussion 2226
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0922 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

   Areas affected...Northern/Central Louisiana and western Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 639...

   Valid 250322Z - 250515Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 639 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to spread across northern, and
   portions of central, Louisiana over the next 1-3 hours. With time
   this activity should spread into western Mississippi.

   DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is approaching the
   lower Sabine River Valley, per latest water-vapor imagery. In
   response to this feature, a squall line has matured over the last
   few hours, extending from San Augustine County TX-Bienville Parish
   LA. Along this corridor, several smaller bow-like structures have
   developed and have accelerated a bit in response to strengthening
   midlevel flow. This linear MCS is expected to advance across the
   remainder of northern/central LA by 06-07z, likely spreading into
   portions of western MS as the warm front gradually lifts north.
   There is some concern this activity may remain organized as it exits
   the northeastern corner of ww639. If air mass destabilization is
   adequate downstream, a new watch may be warranted. Tornado risk
   continues with any supercells, and with circulations along the
   squall line. Localized damaging winds may also be noted ahead of any
   fast-moving bow echoes.

   ..Darrow.. 11/25/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32409279 32899096 31999065 30959279 31099396 32409279 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN