Mesoscale Discussion 2224 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas into extreme western Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 638... Valid 242147Z - 242315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 638 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated tornadoes remain possible this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...A round of supercell structures, with a history of producing a tornado, has since diminished, with storms percolating in intensity along and ahead of a surface cold front. At the moment, it is unclear if storms will remain weak or if an uptick in intensity (with increased tornado potential) will occur over the next few hours. Nonetheless, the warm sector remains buoyant to the south of a warm front, characterized by 1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE driven by 70s/upper 60s F surface temperatures/dewpoints beneath 6+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. Furthermore, 20Z mesoanalysis shows 60+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow overspreading a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet, contributing to 50-70 kts of effective bulk shear and sizeable elongated/curved hodographs with 200+ m2/s2 effective SRH. As such, a conditional tornado threat persists if storms can organize, especially near the warm front, where low-level shear is maximized. ..Squitieri.. 11/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 30239665 31649605 31989571 32289498 32409440 32359391 32179361 31689345 31009361 30309399 30049448 29829509 29719548 29659584 29739613 30239665 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
Source link