Mesoscale Discussion 2218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025
Areas affected...parts of the Texas South Plains into Pecos Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 231914Z - 232215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The initiation of thunderstorms, including one or two
evolving supercells posing a risk for large hail, and perhaps a
tornado, increasingly probable through 2-4 PM CST.
DISCUSSION...As large-scale mid/upper troughing continues to slowly
shift north-northeastward into/through the Four Corners region, an
initial embedded short wave perturbation is already pivoting
northeastward into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains vicinity.
Near the southern periphery of the mid-level cooling/forcing for
ascent associated with this feature, appreciable boundary-layer
destabilization is well underway, aided by continuing moist
southerly low-level return flow and boundary-layer heating and
mixing.
Models suggest that a dryline will continue becoming better defined
over the next couple of hours, across the Texas Big Bend through New
Mexico/Texas state border vicinity, north-northwest of Midland.
Along and to the east of this feature, convectively unstable
thermodynamic profiles are evolving, with a still moistening
boundary layer forecast to also become characterized by CAPE on the
order of 1000-1500 J/kg. At the same time, a 60-70 kt 500 mb jet
streak is overspreading the region, contributing to strong
deep-layer shear.
Convection-allowing model output and other guidance suggest that the
initiation of at least isolated thunderstorms will become
increasingly probable through the 20-22z time frame, centered
near/north of Midland. Although at least some weakening of
southerly low-level flow may yield increasingly modest to weak
low-level hodographs, the evolution of a supercell or two posing a
risk for severe hail appears possible, and a tornado may not be
entirely out of the question into early evening.
..Kerr/Mosier.. 11/23/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32120283 33530277 33500205 32190160 30960189 31030254
31410299 32120283
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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