Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025
472 WTPZ43 KNHC 282033 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 28 2025 The center of Sonia has become exposed on the southern side of a decreasing area of deep convection. A scatterometer pass indicated lower winds (30-35 kt) within the circulation than the overnight pass, and conventional satellite estimates are also decreasing. Thus, the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt. Sonia is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt through an increasingly dry and sheared environment across cooler SSTs. Further slow weakening is anticipated while the system turns westward due to the low-level flow. Global models suggest that Sonia has produced its last organized convective burst, which is consistent with the unfavorable environment. Therefore, remnant low status is shown in 12 hours. The updated NHC track and intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and the consensus/corrected-consensus aids. The circulation is still forecast by the global models to open up into a trough in about 48 hours, therefore dissipation is shown at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 15.3N 124.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 15.4N 125.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/1800Z 15.3N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/0600Z 15.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Source link