Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025 The satellite presentation of Sonia has changed little since the previous advisory, with a small area of deep convection persisting over the low-level center. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 2.5/35 kt and 2.0/30 kt, respectively, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged from 31 to 41 kt. A blend of these data, along with an earlier ASCAT Metop-C pass that sampled a broad area of 30-33 kt winds when convection was absent, supports maintaining the initial intensity at 35 kt for this advisory. Sonia is moving west-northwestward, or 295 degrees at 6 kt. A turn toward the west is expected later tonight or Tuesday as the circulation becomes shallower and the system is steered along by the low-level flow. The official forecast track has been nudged slightly north of the previous one due to the more west-northwest motion observed since the last advisory, and it lies close to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Sonia’s days appear to be numbered, as the cyclone remains affected by strong southerly shear—currently analyzed near 25 kt by UW-CIMSS. The shear is expected to increase slightly over the next day or so while Sonia moves over gradually cooling waters and into a drier mid-level environment. These factors should result in a steady weakening trend, with the system likely to become a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday and dissipate on Thursday. The intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly higher than the previous advisory, based on recent satellite trends and the latest consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 14.5N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 14.7N 123.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 14.9N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 15.0N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 14.9N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema (CPHC)
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