Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025
373 WTPZ43 KNHC 270836 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Satellite imagery shows a renewed burst of deep convection over and just north of the low-level circulation center during the past several hours, despite the steady southerly wind shear affecting it. Based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak and objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward at about 285/6 kt, and this general motion is expected to persist today, as the subtropical ridge remains positioned to the north. By Tuesday, Sonia should gradually turn toward the west as it becomes a shallow system embedded within the low-level trade-wind flow. The NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. Although Sonia has been able to regenerate convection and may continue to do so intermittently during the next day or so, the unfavorable environment surrounding the system is expected to begin taking its toll soon. Moderate southerly shear, marginal sea-surface temperatures, and a drier, more stable environment along the forecast path should cause a weakening trend to begin by tonight. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows convection steadily diminishing by Tuesday, and Sonia is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by that time. Dissipation is expected to occur by midweek as the remnant low opens into a trough. The updated NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and remains close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 14.2N 120.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 14.4N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 14.6N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 14.8N 124.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 14.8N 125.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1800Z 14.7N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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