Issued at 800 PM MST Mon Oct 06 2025
055 WTPZ41 KNHC 070249 TCDEP1 Hurricane Priscilla Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 800 PM MST Mon Oct 06 2025 Priscilla remains a large hurricane this evening, with broad curved bands developing and rotating around the center on GOES-18 satellite imagery. Since the prior advisory, there was a 0057 UTC WSF-M microwave pass that showed the inner-core starting to tighten up with a nearly closed 37-GHz cyan ring. This may foreshadow a period of more intensification in the near future. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB remain unchanged from earlier today at T4.5/77-kt and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 68-78 kt, so the initial intensity remains 75 kt for this advisory. The hurricane appears to finally be moving a little faster to the northwest, with the estimated motion at 320/8 kt. A continued northwestward track with a little faster forward motion is expected over the next 24-48 hours as ridging becomes re-established to the northeast of Priscilla. After this time, an amplifying shortwave trough is expected to cutoff just off the Western U.S. coastline, eroding the ridge north of the hurricane. In response, the majority of the guidance shows Priscilla turning northward as it moves in the flow between the ridge and the digging trough. The track guidance shifted a little more right this cycle, and the NHC track was nudged in that direction. However, it still remains slower and not as far right as some of the hurricane-regional models and the ECMWF track forecast, remaining close to a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). The improving core structure on microwave imagery suggests that Priscilla might be finally ready to intensify a little more in the short term. With shear remaining between 15-20 kt, and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) remaining above 28 C for the next 24-36 h, the hurricane is expected to intensify and reach a peak intensity during this time. Afterwards, Priscilla is expected to cross a sharp SST gradient into much cooler water, leading to steady weakening beyond 36 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the prior advisory, electing to remain close to the HCCA intensity aid. Shear also increases rapidly after 72 h, and the tropical cyclone could lose its remaining convection right as it approaches the Baja California coastline, leading to the system becoming a remnant low. Regardless, enhanced moisture is likely to make its way toward portions of the southwestern United States during the latter half of this week. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the Baja California Sur Pacific coastline Tuesday night into Wednesday, within the Tropical Storm Watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Priscilla. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Priscilla will impact portions of southern Baja California Sur, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. 3. Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 19.1N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 19.8N 109.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 20.7N 110.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 21.6N 112.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 22.8N 113.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 24.0N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 25.2N 115.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 27.4N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 29.7N 114.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin
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