Issued at 500 PM MST Mon Oct 06 2025
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 062346 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Priscilla Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 500 PM MST Mon Oct 06 2025 ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 108.0W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Punta Mita, Mexico * Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Priscilla. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 108.0 West. Priscilla is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move offshore of and parallel to the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur through the middle part of this week. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or two, and Priscilla is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane before weakening begins by midweek. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the west-central coast of Mexico through tonight, and are possible in Baja California Sur Tuesday night into Wednesday. RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will continue to bring heavy rain to portions of west-central Mexico today. Across coastal portions of Michoacán and Colima, additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected. From Tuesday into Wednesday, 1 to 2 inches with local storm total amounts to 4 inches are expected in southern portions of Baja California Sur due to the outer bands of Priscilla. This rainfall could bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Moisture from Priscilla should bring heavy rainfall potential over the Southwest U.S. late this week into this weekend. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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