Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 06 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061442 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 06 2025 Octave continues to lose strength this morning. Satellite images show that the associated deep convection has been gradually shrinking, and the cloud pattern is now more asymmetric with the low-level center located near the southwestern edge of the thunderstorm activity. There is a big spread in the satellite intensity estimates that currently range from 45 kt to about 80 kt. Based on the degraded structure, the initial wind speed is set closer to the lower end of the range at 55 kt. A satellite view of the eastern Pacific basin shows how small Octave is compared to Priscilla. In fact, Octave's wind field is less than one-third of the size of Priscilla. The storm is moving eastward at 6 kt on the south side of a large-scale trough near the west coast of the U.S. A continued eastward or east-southeastward motion is forecast for another day or two, followed by a faster motion to the northeast when Octave becomes influenced by the flow on Priscilla's southeast side. The track forecast is fairly similar to the previous one, and this prediction lies closest to the HCCA and Google Deep Mind solutions. Continued weakening is expected as Octave moves into an environment of increasing shear and drier air. Most of the models show Octave opening up into a trough or dissipating completely in a few days as it becomes absorbed into the outer circulation of Priscilla. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, and leans closer to the lower end of the model guidance given the expected unfavorable environmental conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 16.3N 121.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 16.1N 120.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 15.7N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 15.5N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 15.6N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 16.5N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 17.6N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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