Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052046 TCDEP5 Hurricane Octave Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 05 2025 The structure of Octave has changed little since the previous advisory. The low-level center continues to be underneath the eastern side of the tightly wound curved banding, associated with the core of the hurricane. There continues to be hints of an eye in visible satellite imagery. Subjective Dvorak estimates are a consensus 65 kt from TAFB and SAB, while objective intensity estimates range from 55-80 kt. The initial intensity is held at 70 kt. The initial motion estimate is slightly faster toward the northeast, or 055 degrees at 5 kt. A turn toward the east at a slightly faster forward speed is expected Monday as the cyclone is pushed in that direction by an upper-level trough to its northwest. By early Tuesday, the main weather feature affecting Octave's track will likely be a large and powerful Priscilla, which should cause Octave to turn toward the east-southeast. By Wednesday, models are in agreement that Octave should be located south of Priscilla. Once Octave gets southeast of Priscilla, an acceleration toward the northeast is expected until Octave's circulation likely dissipates in a little less than 4 days. The NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly to the north of the previous official forecast through 60 hours, and lies roughly in between the latest GFEX and the Google Deep Mind Ensemble mean. Octave is straddling the sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient and is forecast to move parallel to the SST gradient for the next couple of days, with the eye likely to encounter SSTs in the 26 to 26.5 degree C range. Wind shear should remain relatively low through the next 24-36 hours. Octave is forecast to gradually encounter a slightly drier and more stable airmass on Monday. All of the models show Octave weakening beginning shortly, but given the environmental conditions, it wouldn't be surprising to see the cyclone maintain its intensity for another 12-24 h. The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the model guidance for the first 24 h, then lies near the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter. By 36 h, increasing easterly shear, partially the result of the outflow from Priscilla, is expected to lead to weakening. Model guidance suggests that either Octave will be absorbed by the stronger Priscilla or that the outflow from Priscilla will disrupt Octave's circulation, opening it into a trough. Regardless of which scenario occurs, Octave should dissipate within 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.0N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 16.2N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 16.3N 121.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 16.1N 120.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 15.7N 119.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 15.5N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 15.8N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
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