Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 04 2025
361 WTPZ45 KNHC 050239 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 04 2025 Octave's organization has held relatively steady since the previous advisory. Overshooting cloud tops continue to burst through a modestly-sized central dense overcast. An earlier AMSR2 37 GHz overpass showed a curved band wrapping around the northern and western quadrants of the storm. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range from 42 kt to 65 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt representing a blend of these values. The storm is still slowing moving north-northwestward at 4 kt. A turn to the north is expected shortly, followed by an accelerated eastward motion in about 24 hours. Much of this track prediction depends on the evolution of Tropical Storm Priscilla, located about 1100 miles to the east of Octave. The NHC track forecast has shifted slightly north of the previous track forecast due to a more northward initial position and lies between HCCA and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean. Octave has a short window of 18-24 hours with relatively conducive atmospheric conditions to intensify. Weak vertical wind shear and adequate mid-level moisture should allow Octave to strengthen. By Monday, increasing upper-level winds are expected to disrupt Octave's circulation and induce a gradual weakening trend. Octave is still forecast to open into a trough on the southern side of Tropical Storm Priscilla by the end of the forecast period. Only minor adjustments were made to the latest official intensity prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 15.4N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 15.8N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 16.2N 123.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 16.2N 122.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 16.1N 121.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 15.9N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 15.5N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 15.6N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
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